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برآورد میزان تمایل به وقف در بازار سرمایه با تأکید بر ساختار پیشنهادی صندوق وقفی و عوامل مؤثر برآن | ||
| تحقیقات مالی اسلامی | ||
| مقاله 2، دوره 14، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 32، بهمن 1403، صفحه 235-270 اصل مقاله (1.28 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: علمی - پژوهشی (بازار سرمایه اسلامی) | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30497/ifr.2025.247313.1926 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| سعید فراهانی‌فرد* 1؛ سید رضا حسینی2؛ ساناز رحیمی3 | ||
| 1استاد، گروه اقتصاد اسلامی، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری، دانشگاه قم، قم،ایران | ||
| 2دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد، پژوهشگاه حوزه و دانشگاه، قم،ایران | ||
| 3دانشجوی دکتری، گروه اقتصاد اسلامی، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری، دانشگاه قم، قم، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| 1. مقدمه و هدف وقف یکی از ابزارهای مهم اقتصاد اسلامی برای تحقق رشد عادلانه و کاهش فقر است. در سال‌های اخیر، ظرفیت‌های نوینی در حوزه وقف پدید آمده است که صندوق‌های وقفی در بازار سرمایه از مهم‌ترین آن‌ها به‌شمار می‌آیند. این صندوق‌ها می‌توانند سرمایه‌های وقفی را با رعایت موازین شرعی و در راستای اهداف واقفان، وارد جریان فعالیت‌های تولیدی و خدماتی کنند و از رکود خارج سازند. از آنجا که صندوق‌های وقفی تاکنون در بازار سرمایه ایران به‌صورت اجرایی راه‌اندازی نشده‌اند و ساختار آن‌ها تنها در سطح نظری توسط کمیته فقهی سازمان بورس و اوراق بهادار تصویب شده است، سنجش میزان استقبال و تمایل افراد به مشارکت در این نوع صندوق‌ها، گامی مهم در مسیر توسعه آن‌ها محسوب می‌شود. هدف این پژوهش، امکان‌سنجی مشارکت عمومی در صندوق مشترک سرمایه‌گذاری وقف و تحلیل عوامل مؤثر بر آن است. 2. مواد و روش‌ها پژوهش حاضر از نوع مطالعات کاربردی و با روش توصیفی ـ تحلیلی انجام شده است. برای برآورد میزان تمایل به وقف افراد در بازار سرمایه از طریق صندوق مشترک سرمایه‌گذاری وقف، از روش ارزش‌گذاری مشروط (CVM) استفاده شد. داده‌های پژوهش با پرسش‌نامه دوگانه دوبعدی گردآوری شدند و تحلیل متغیرهای مؤثر با استفاده از مدل لوجیت و روش حداکثر درست‌نمایی (MLE) انجام گرفت. 3. یافته‌های تحقیق یافته‌ها نشان داد 38/78 درصد پاسخ‌گویان تمایل به مشارکت در صندوق وقف دارند. بر اساس نتایج مدل لوجیت، متغیرهای «درآمد فرد»، «سن»، «آشنایی با صندوق» و «نگرش به وقف» اثر مثبت و معنادار بر تمایل به وقف داشتند، در حالی که متغیرهای «وضعیت تأهل» و «مبلغ پیشنهادی» اثر منفی و معنادار نشان دادند. میانگین تمایل به وقف هر فرد برابر با 59/1.728.381 ریال برآورد شد و ارزش اقتصادی کل صندوق حدود 41/148.573 میلیارد ریال محاسبه گردید. 4. بحث و نتیجه‌گیری نتایج پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که صندوق مشترک سرمایه‌گذاری وقف می‌تواند ابزاری کارآمد برای توسعه فرهنگ وقف و تقویت مشارکت اجتماعی در بازار سرمایه باشد. توجه به نقش متغیرهایی چون درآمد، آشنایی با صندوق و نگرش مثبت نسبت به وقف در سیاست‌گذاری و طراحی ابزارهای حمایتی می‌تواند مشارکت عمومی در این صندوق‌ها را افزایش دهد. همچنین، کاهش موانع مرتبط با وضعیت تأهل و مدیریت صحیح مبالغ پیشنهادی می‌تواند به جذب افراد بیشتری کمک کند. بر این اساس، توسعه صندوق‌های وقفی در بازار سرمایه علاوه بر ارتقای عدالت اجتماعی، ظرفیت مناسبی برای تأمین مالی پایدار در اقتصاد اسلامی فراهم می‌سازد. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| صندوق وقف؛ بازار سرمایه؛ تمایل به پرداخت؛ ارزش‌گذاری مشروط؛ مدل لوجیت | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Estimating the Willingness to Endow in the Capital Market with Emphasis on the Proposed Structure of the Waqf Investment Fund and Its Determinants | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Saeed Farahanifard1؛ Seyyed Reza Hosseini2؛ Sanaz Rahimi3 | ||
| 1Professor, Department of Islamic Economics, Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences, University of Qom, Qom, Iran | ||
| 2Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University and Seminary Research Institute, Qom, Iran. | ||
| 3PhD Student, Department of Islamic Economics, Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences, University of Qom, Qom, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| 1. Introduction and Objective The institution of waqf (endowment) is one of the oldest and most influential mechanisms within Islamic economic thought, historically employed to reduce poverty, promote social welfare, and support cultural and educational initiatives. Traditionally, waqf assets were tangible and static in nature—land, houses, gardens, or valuable movable assets such as books and tools—whose use was allocated to charitable or religious purposes. While these contributions made significant historical impacts, they often remained limited in scope due to restrictions in management, inflexibility of utilization, and the absence of financial mechanisms capable of unlocking their broader potential. In the contemporary era, rapid changes in economic structures and the emergence of complex financial markets have created new opportunities for waqf. One such innovation is the waqf investment fund in capital markets. These funds offer the potential to mobilize endowed resources in productive economic cycles while maintaining strict adherence to Shariah principles and the intentions of donors. They aim to transform dormant or underutilized assets into active contributors to economic growth, social development, and poverty alleviation. However, in Iran, despite the theoretical approval of such funds by the Shariah Committee of the Securities and Exchange Organization, no operational waqf investment fund has yet been launched. This absence highlights a crucial research gap: the lack of empirical knowledge about public willingness to participate in such instruments. Understanding this willingness, alongside the determinants shaping it, is vital for designing effective policy, fostering innovation in Islamic finance, and expanding the scope of waqf within modern economic systems. The present study was designed to fill this gap by estimating the willingness to endow in the capital market through a proposed structure of a mutual waqf investment fund. It specifically aims to: 1. Assess the extent of public willingness to contribute to such a fund. 2. Identify and quantify the socioeconomic, attitudinal, and informational determinants that influence willingness to endow. 3. Provide policy-oriented recommendations for enhancing participation and ensuring the long-term sustainability of waqf-based financial institutions. Unlike previous studies that largely emphasized the jurisprudential aspects of waqf or provided macroeconomic discussions of its potential, this research adopts an econometric and field-data-driven approach. By doing so, it contributes empirical evidence to guide the operationalization of waqf investment funds in Iran’s capital market. 2. Methods and Materials This research is applied in nature and follows a descriptive–analytical design. The study period corresponds to the year 2024 (1403 in the Iranian calendar). The methodological approach integrates the Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) with econometric modeling, specifically employing the logit model under maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). Data Collection Given that waqf investment funds are not yet operational in Iran, real behavioral data were unavailable. As such, the waqf investment fund was conceptualized as a hypothetical market good—an approach consistent with CVM practices for non-market goods. A double-bounded dichotomous choice questionnaire was developed to elicit individuals’ willingness to endow (WTE). The questionnaire was structured in three major sections: 1) Socioeconomic information of respondents (income, age, marital status, education, employment). 2) Attitudes, awareness, and perceptions regarding waqf in the capital market, measured through a five-point Likert scale assessing values, perceived social and economic impacts, and trust. 3) Willingness to endow under a hypothetical market scenario. Respondents were presented with sequential bid amounts: an initial value based on pre-testing, followed by a higher bid if the first response was positive or a lower bid if the first response was negative. Pre-testing with 30 respondents was conducted to identify an appropriate initial bid and refine the questionnaire design. Median WTE values from the pre-test were used as the starting bid levels. The final survey employed three bid amounts: 6,000,000 IRR, 12,000,000 IRR, and 24,000,000 IRR. Sampling The statistical population consisted of individuals with independent income in Iran. Using Cochran’s formula, the required sample size was determined to be 384. After excluding incomplete responses, 361 valid questionnaires remained for analysis. The sampling approach was simple random sampling, ensuring representation of diverse socioeconomic groups. Analytical Tools - Excel 2013 and SPSS 22 were used for descriptive statistics. - EViews 10 was used to estimate the logit model via maximum likelihood estimation. - Indicators such as the McFadden R² and the likelihood ratio test were applied to assess the overall model fit. The dependent variable was binary (acceptance or rejection of the proposed bid for waqf endowment). Independent variables included socioeconomic characteristics (income, age, marital status), attitudinal measures (awareness, perception, trust, and religious motivations), and the bid amount offered. 3. Research Findings Descriptive Results - Gender and marital status: 68.02% of respondents were male, and 67.77% were married. - Employment: The majority were employed, with the highest proportions in self-employment and government jobs. - General willingness: 38.78% of respondents expressed willingness to participate in the waqf investment fund. Econometric Results The logit regression analysis identified significant determinants of willingness to endow: 1. Income: Positive and highly significant at the 1% level. Higher income levels increased the likelihood of willingness to endow. The marginal effect indicated that a one-unit increase in household income raised the probability of willingness to endow by 8.2342%. 2. Age and marital status: Age had a positive and significant effect at the 1% level, while being married had a negative and significant effect at the 5% level. This implies that older single individuals were more likely to endow compared to their married counterparts. The marginal effects showed that each additional year of age increased willingness by 1.3841%, while being married decreased willingness by 9.149%. 3 Awareness of waqf funds: Positive and significant at the 5% level. A one-unit increase in awareness raised the probability of willingness to endow by 11.2385%. 4. Attitudes toward waqf: Positive and significant, confirming that stronger positive attitudes toward the social and spiritual values of waqf increased participation likelihood. 5. Proposed bid amount: Negative and significant at the 5% level. As the proposed endowment amount increased, willingness to endow decreased. The marginal effect indicated that a one-unit increase in the bid reduced the probability of willingness to endow by 0.00000569%. Model Diagnostics - The McFadden R² was 0.238, indicating an acceptable level of explanatory power for behavioral models of this type. - The likelihood ratio test statistic was 192.0005, highly significant at the 0% level, confirming the overall model fit. - Compared to a constant-only model, the final model achieved a 26.40% improvement in explanatory power. Aggregate Economic Value The mean individual willingness to endow was estimated at 1,728,381.59 IRR. Multiplying this by the national population of 85,961,000 (Statistical Center of Iran, 2024) yields a total economic value of approximately 148,573.41 trillion IRR for the waqf investment fund. 4. Discussion and Conclusion The results underscore the viability of waqf investment funds as a modern Islamic financial instrument capable of mobilizing public resources for social and economic development. Several key implications arise: 1) Income-driven participation: As income was positively correlated with willingness to endow, targeted tax incentives, tiered endowment schemes, and recognition programs for high-income donors could increase participation among wealthier individuals. 2) Demographic considerations: The findings revealed that older single individuals were more inclined toward endowment. This suggests the potential for developing inheritance-oriented waqf schemes tailored to elderly individuals without direct heirs, positioning waqf as a meaningful legacy option. 3) Awareness and education: Familiarity with the waqf investment fund significantly boosted willingness to endow. This highlights the need for broad-based public campaigns, integration into educational curricula, and the use of digital media to raise awareness of the benefits and mechanisms of waqf funds. 4) Attitudinal reinforcement: Positive perceptions of waqf’s social and spiritual impact were crucial drivers of participation. Policymakers and religious institutions should emphasize stories of successful waqf projects, promote the notion of “small endowments, big impacts,” and foster trust in fund governance. 5) Price sensitivity: The negative association between bid amounts and willingness indicates that excessive required contributions deter participation. Designing flexible, scalable, and installment-based endowment models would mitigate this barrier and expand participation across income groups. 5) Policy implications: - Legal and regulatory frameworks should ensure transparency, accountability, and strict adherence to Shariah compliance. - Waqf investment funds should be incorporated into the broader agenda of resistance economy strategies in Iran, serving as tools for sustainable, non-inflationary financing. - Collaborative initiatives between the Securities and Exchange Organization, Awqaf Organization, and religious institutions are essential for public trust-building. Limitations and Future Research This study was limited to a single proposed structure of a mutual waqf investment fund and did not compare across other models (e.g., stock-based or cash waqf funds). Furthermore, the sample was restricted to individuals with independent income. Future research should broaden the sample to diverse groups and examine alternative instruments such as waqf bonds, micro-waqf funds, and hybrid Islamic financial products. Employing mixed-method approaches (quantitative and qualitative) could also provide deeper insights into the psychological, cultural, and religious motivations behind endowment behavior. Conclusion Overall, this study provides robust empirical evidence that waqf investment funds hold significant promise for Iran’s capital market. By identifying the determinants of public willingness to endow, it offers a roadmap for policymakers, regulators, and religious authorities to design inclusive, sustainable, and Shariah-compliant financial instruments that enhance social welfare, reduce poverty, and advance equitable economic growth. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Cash Waqf Fund, Capital Market, Willingness to Pay, Contingent Valuation Method, Logit Model | ||
| مراجع | ||
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آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 136 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 52 |
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